Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Plunges to Lowest Since 2014
Conference Board says index fell 9.7 points to 84.5 in Jan. 2026, the weakest reading since May 2014.
Overview
The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index fell 9.7 points to 84.5 in Jan. 2026, the lowest reading since May 2014, and its expectations subindex dropped 9.5 points to 65.1.
The decline deepens recession concerns after the Labor Department reported employers added just 50,000 jobs in December 2025 and the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, factors economists cited in explaining the confidence collapse.
Dana Peterson, the Conference Board's chief economist, said in a release that "Confidence collapsed in January" as all five components of the index deteriorated, while Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called the reading a "warning sign to policymakers."
The Conference Board survey showed 23.9% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 27.5% in December, and 20.8% said jobs were "hard to get," up from 19.1%, marking the 12th consecutive month the expectations reading was under 80, according to the release.
Analysts including Ben Ayers of Nationwide warned the plunge could weaken activity in the first quarter of 2026, even as the Treasury Department projects average tax refunds will increase by $1,000 per household this year, which may cushion spending.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources portray the confidence drop as alarming and linked to weak hiring and tariffs. Editorial choices—dramatic verbs ('cratered,' 'collapsed'), source selection (Conference Board, economists blaming tariffs), and juxtaposition of poor job gains with growth—shape the narrative, while attribution quotes remain source content highlighted to support the frame.
Sources (4)
FAQ
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is based on a monthly survey of 5,000 US households asking five questions about current and future business conditions, employment, and family income. It averages the Present Situation Index (questions 1-2) and Expectations Index (questions 3-5), with values above 100 indicating optimism.
The decline followed weak December 2025 jobs data with only 50,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.4%, leading to deterioration in all five index components, including fewer consumers viewing jobs as plentiful (23.9% from 27.5%).[story]
Dana Peterson called it a 'confidence collapse'; Heather Long labeled it a 'warning sign to policymakers'; Ben Ayers warned of weakened Q1 2026 activity despite higher tax refunds.[story]
The Expectations Index at 65.1 marks the 12th consecutive month below 80, a threshold signaling potential recession ahead.[story][4]
The CCI fell to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014, plunging 9.7 points from December.[story]
History
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