NY Fed: Consumers Bore 90% of Donald Trump's 2025 Tariffs
Federal Reserve Bank of New York found the average U.S. tariff rose to 13% in 2025 and 90% of the cost was passed to U.S. firms and shoppers.
Overview
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the average U.S. tariff on imports rose to 13% in 2025 and that U.S. firms and consumers bore 90% of the increased costs, according to the report.
The finding contradicts assertions by Donald Trump that foreign exporters absorbed most tariff costs, a contention Trump defended in a Jan. 30 op-ed, according to economists cited in the analysis.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the tariff policy in a written statement, saying higher tariffs coincided with cooled inflation and stronger corporate profits, officials confirmed.
The New York Fed's analysis found U.S. importers bore 94% of tariff costs from January through August 2025 and still shouldered 86% by November 2025, records show.
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on Donald Trump's authority to impose levies under a federal emergency-powers law, and analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School estimate the government could owe up to $168 billion in refunds if the tariffs are struck down.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the tariffs as a policy failure by foregrounding a New York Fed finding that US consumers bore 90% of costs, stressing how this 'undermines' presidential claims, and highlighting political and legal pushback — a 'rebuke' over Canada and an expected Supreme Court review — emphasizing economic and political consequences.
Sources (3)
FAQ
The NY Fed found that US firms and consumers bore 90% of the 2025 tariff costs on average, with 94% pass-through from January to August 2025 and 86% by November.
The average US tariff rate rose from 2.6% to 13% by the end of 2025, following tariffs imposed starting on 'Liberation Day' in April.
It contradicts Trump's assertion that foreign exporters absorbed most tariff costs, as the NY Fed showed US firms and consumers bore 90% of the burden.
Tariffs are projected to slow GDP growth by 0.4 points, increase unemployment by 0.6 points (1.3 million jobs), and boost inflation by about 1 point.
The US Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on Trump's authority to impose tariffs under a federal emergency-powers law, with potential $168 billion in refunds if struck down.
History
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