Middle-Market Tariff Burden Triples, JPMorgan Analysis Finds
JPMorganChase Institute found tariffs paid by midsized U.S. firms tripled, affecting companies that employ 48 million people and prompting shifts away from transacting with China, the institute said.
Overview
JPMorganChase Institute found tariffs paid by midsized U.S. businesses tripled over the course of last year, the institute said.
The analysis examined middle-market firms with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion and fewer than 500 employees that together employ about 48 million people, the report said.
Chi Mac, business research director of the JPMorganChase Institute, said firms may be shifting away from transacting with China and toward other regions in Asia, the report said.
New York Fed researchers said the average tariff rate rose to 13% from 2.6% last year and that nearly 90% of the burden fell on U.S. companies and consumers, the reports said.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether Trump surpassed his legal authority by declaring an economic emergency, the reports said.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame Trump's tariffs as harmful to U.S. businesses by foregrounding JPMorgan and NY Fed analyses, using skeptical verbs ("lashed out") and highlighting critical quotes (Hassett called the paper "an embarrassment"). The coverage prioritizes economic research over administration claims, structuring the story to emphasize costs and voter frustration.
Sources (3)
FAQ
The U.S. effective tariff rate rose significantly from approximately 2.3-2.6% at the end of 2024 to around 15.8% by mid-2025, driven by sweeping tariff policy changes implemented in 2025[3]. The tariff increases were particularly steep on imports in sectors like textiles, metals, and food products, with U.S. customs collecting over $27 billion in tariffs in June 2025 alone—three times the previous year's $7.9 billion[1]. This dramatic escalation in tariff rates directly corresponded to the tripling of tariff burdens on middle-market firms.
According to JPMorganChase Institute analysis, middle-market firms are shifting away from transacting with China and toward other regions in Asia in response to elevated tariff costs[5]. The report examined firms with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion and found that these companies are actively adapting their international payment strategies and trade patterns as they grapple with ongoing tariff uncertainty and higher duties[5].
New York Fed researchers found that nearly 90% of the tariff burden fell on U.S. companies and consumers rather than foreign producers[1]. This means that middle-market firms are passing much of the increased tariff costs to American consumers through higher prices, particularly in sectors reliant on imports such as household furniture and other household items[1].
The middle-market firms analyzed by JPMorganChase Institute—those with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion and fewer than 500 employees—together employ approximately 48 million people[1]. This scale makes tariff impacts on the middle-market sector particularly significant for the overall U.S. economy, as changes affecting these firms directly impact the livelihoods and economic well-being of nearly 15% of the American workforce.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether President Trump exceeded his legal authority by declaring an economic emergency to justify the tariffs[1]. The outcome of this case could potentially affect the validity and continuation of the current tariff regime, though the timing and implications of the ruling remain uncertain.
History
This story does not have any previous versions.