Consumers' Confidence Rises As Job Outlook Improves
Conference Board index rose 2.2 points to 91.2 in February as expectations for jobs and incomes improved, with plans to buy big-ticket items increasing.
Fox BusinessConsumer confidence rebounds in February as Americans grow less pessimistic about jobs
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Overview
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose 2.2 points to 91.2 in February from an upwardly revised 89 in January.
A short-term expectations measure rose four points to 72 but stayed below 80 for the 13th consecutive month, and the February reading remained well below the four-year peak of 112.8 reached in November 2024.
Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said confidence ticked up in February as consumers' pessimistic expectations eased and four of five components firmed.
Government data showed employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs in January, and reports put job gains in 2025 at roughly 181,000 to 584,000 compared with more than 2 million added in 2024.
Plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months rose in February, led by used cars, furniture, TVs and smartphones, while home-buying expectations were little changed.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the modest uptick as evidence of a precarious economy, using editorial choices (loaded words like 'cratering' and 'mired', selective emphasis on job softness and tariffs) while attributing causal claims to source content (economists' comments and government data), producing a cautious, risk-focused narrative.
FAQ
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is derived from responses to five survey questions about current business conditions, expectations for business conditions six months ahead, current employment conditions, employment expectations six months ahead, and expected family income[1][2]. The index is calculated by measuring the difference between positive and negative responses, with each question converted to an index value using 1985 as a benchmark, then all five indexes are averaged together[1]. The overall index can range from very low to high values, with the February reading of 91.2 reflecting moderate consumer sentiment[2].
The article indicates that a short-term expectations measure rose four points to 72 in February but has stayed below 80 for the 13th consecutive month, suggesting consumers remain cautious about near-term economic prospects despite the improvement[1]. However, the search results do not provide specific reasons for this persistent caution. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey measures expectations regarding business conditions, employment, and income over the next six months[2], and the below-80 reading suggests consumers continue to have reservations about these forward-looking indicators despite some recent improvement.
Job gains in 2025 are projected at roughly 181,000 to 584,000 compared with more than 2 million added in 2024, representing a significant slowdown[1]. Since the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based partly on consumers' appraisals and expectations of employment conditions[2], the weaker job growth outlook could restrain future confidence gains. However, the February confidence increase occurred as the job outlook improved relative to earlier expectations, suggesting that even slower job growth may be acceptable to consumers if it represents stability or meets expectations[1].
The article indicates that plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months rose in February, led by used cars, furniture, TVs and smartphones, while home-buying expectations were little changed[1]. The search results do not explain this divergence, but it may reflect that consumers feel more confident about discretionary purchases in the near term while remaining cautious about major home purchases, which typically require longer-term financial commitments and are sensitive to mortgage rates and housing affordability[2].
Consumer confidence indexes like the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index are considered leading indicators that can predict future consumer spending and broader economic activity[1]. Research has found that consumer expectations have superior predictive power for private consumption compared to other economic indicators[2]. However, the current February reading of 91.2 remains well below the four-year peak of 112.8 reached in November 2024, suggesting consumers expect more moderate economic conditions ahead, though the upward trend in February indicates modestly improving expectations[1].
