Fed Rate Split

Fed officials disagreed sharply on rates as inflation worries cloud the outlook.

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Fed policymakers' inflation worries weighed on rate cut outlook at Warsh's first meeting

Kevin Warsh buried an unusual, unhedged promise in his first Fed minutes—and one economist says it's the strongest signal in the document | Fortune

Some Fed Officials Think Higher Rates Warranted: Minutes

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The reporting

A neutral summary of the key facts most outlets agree on, drawn from reporting across the political spectrum.

Minutes released July 8 from Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 showed officials kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.6% but split over whether inflation would stay elevated or cool after the Iran war winds down. Nine of 18 voting members projected a rate hike before the end of 2026, while other participants saw scenarios where easing inflation could justify lower rates. Officials cited tariff and energy-price pressures as inflation risks. Warsh also won backing for policy reforms, and the June statement pledged: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Analysis & opinion

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