CBO Forecasts U.S. Population Growth to Slow, Decline After 2056
CBO projections show U.S. population growth slowing due to falling births and immigration; growth driven by immigration until projected decline after 2056 amid policy uncertainties.
Overview
The Congressional Budget Office reports U.S. population growth will slow, forecasting smaller increases by 2035 and an eventual decline after 2056 due to demographic shifts.
By 2030, CBO projects deaths will exceed births in the United States as fertility declines, shifting the primary source of population growth toward migration.
CBO anticipates slow immigration increases through 2036, then a substantial rise averaging about 1.2 million arrivals annually from 2037 to 2056, contingent on future policy.
Lower fertility rates and current immigration trends drive the projections, raising questions about labor supply, social programs, and long-term economic and fiscal planning.
CBO notes projections depend heavily on future immigration policies and international developments, meaning actual population paths could differ significantly from baseline forecasts.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the story as a policy-driven demographic shock, emphasizing Trump’s immigration measures and fiscal consequences. They use evaluative terms (“hard-line,” “mass deportations”), prioritize CBO and demographer analysis, and lead with population projections—while CBO figures and direct quotes remain source content rather than editorial assertion.
Sources (3)
FAQ
The CBO projects the U.S. population will increase from 349 million in 2026 to 364 million in 2056, after which it is expected to decline.
Growth slows due to declining fertility rates, with deaths exceeding births by 2030, and while immigration drives growth until 2056, it offsets the natural decrease only until then.
Immigration is the primary driver of growth after 2030, with slow increases through 2036 and then averaging 1.2 million net arrivals annually from 2037 to 2056, though projections depend on future policies.
It raises concerns for labor supply shortages, increased pressure on social programs like Social Security and Medicare due to an aging population, and challenges for long-term economic and fiscal planning.
The January 2026 projections show a smaller population by 8 million in 2055 compared to January 2025, mainly due to lower net immigration through 2029 and reduced fertility rates.
History
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