What are the estimated Russian and Ukrainian military casualties according to the CSIS report?

CSIS estimates Russia suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, from February 2022 to December 2025. Ukraine suffered 500,000-600,000 casualties, including 100,000-140,000 deaths.

How did CSIS compile these casualty estimates?

CSIS used its own analysis, data from Mediazona and BBC Russian Service, British government estimates, and interviews with state officials.

What is Russia's official stance on these casualty figures?

The Kremlin dismissed the CSIS findings as 'not credible,' publicly acknowledging only just over 6,000 soldier deaths.

What future projection does the CSIS report make for combined casualties?

At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may reach 1.8 million now and could hit 2 million by spring 2026.

How do Russian casualties compare historically according to CSIS?

Russia's up to 325,000 troop deaths are the largest wartime military fatalities for any major power since World War II.

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1M ago

CSIS Warns Russia-Ukraine Casualties Could Hit 2 Million

CSIS estimates combined Russian and Ukrainian military casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026, citing 1.2 million Russian casualties through Dec. 2025.

Overview

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Center for Strategic and International Studies released a report saying combined Russian and Ukrainian military casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026, citing 1.2 million Russian casualties through Dec. 2025.

The CSIS report estimated Russia suffered up to 325,000 troop deaths between Feb. 24, 2022, and Dec. 2025, the largest wartime military fatalities for any major power since World War II, according to CSIS.

The Kremlin dismissed the CSIS findings as "not credible," while Russia has publicly acknowledged just over 6,000 soldier deaths, a discrepancy the report and independent outlets flagged.

CSIS said it compiled its estimates using its own analysis, data from independent Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service, British government estimates and interviews with state officials.

CSIS warned that at current rates combined casualties may be about 1.8 million and could reach 2 million by spring 2026, according to the report.

Written using shared reports from

3 sources

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Analysis

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Center-leaning sources foreground the CSIS report’s stark casualty estimates to frame Russia as suffering unprecedented losses and strategic decline, emphasizing phrases like “extraordinary price” and “no major power…” They prioritize authoritative think‑tank and Mediazona/BBC data, lead with high numbers, and note limits, but give the catastrophic narrative prominence.

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Report warns that combined casualties in Russia's war on Ukraine could hit 2 million

ABC News•1M ago

A new report warns that combined war casualties in Russia's war on Ukraine could soon hit 2 million

Associated Press•1M ago

Russian and Ukrainian military casualties in war nearing 2m, study finds

The Guardian•1M ago

FAQ

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: CSIS estimates Russia suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, from February 2022 to December 2025. Ukraine suffered 500,000-600,000 casualties, including 100,000-140,000 deaths.
Sources:
CSIS Report
: CSIS used its own analysis, data from Mediazona and BBC Russian Service, British government estimates, and interviews with state officials.
Sources:
ABC News
: The Kremlin dismissed the CSIS findings as 'not credible,' publicly acknowledging only just over 6,000 soldier deaths.
Sources:
ABC News
: At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may reach 1.8 million now and could hit 2 million by spring 2026.
Sources:
CSIS Report
: Russia's up to 325,000 troop deaths are the largest wartime military fatalities for any major power since World War II.
Sources:
CSIS Report

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