NOAA Forecasts Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season as El Niño Strengthens

NOAA issued its 2026 seasonal outlook saying there is a 55% chance the Atlantic season will be below normal, forecasting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.

Forecasters said a developing El Niño is the main factor, with a 98% chance it will occur this summer and an 80% chance it will be moderate or strong, which typically suppresses Atlantic storms.

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham and NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs urged preparation, and FEMA's Southeast acting administrator attended the briefing after the agency did not attend last year.

Private and academic forecasts broadly agree on reduced Atlantic activity, Colorado State predicts about 13 named storms while insurers cite rising cyclone damage from an average $11.4 billion in the 1980s to $109.7 billion over the past 10 years.

NOAA cautioned forecasts will be updated as the season unfolds, the Atlantic season runs June 1 to November 30, and federal forecasters expect an above-normal eastern Pacific with 15 to 22 named storms.