UAE to Leave OPEC on May 1, Shaking Up Oil Cartel
The UAE will leave OPEC on May 1 to gain production flexibility amid attacks on shipping and aims to reach 5 million bpd capacity by 2027, officials said.
Overview
The UAE will exit OPEC on May 1, the Energy Ministry said.
Officials said the decision followed weeks of missile and drone attacks by Iran and Tehran's disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that constrained the UAE's oil exports.
Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the exit was timed to minimize disruption and to allow more freedom to pursue 5 million barrels per day capacity by 2027.
According to OPEC, the UAE produced 2.9 million barrels per day in 2024, was the group's third-largest producer in February, and Saudi output was nine million barrels per day.
Analysts including Jorge León and David Goldwyn said the exit weakens OPEC's spare-capacity management and could increase long-term price volatility, while the Energy Ministry said the UAE remains committed to market stability.
Analysis
Center-leaning sources frame the UAE’s exit as a strategic blow to Opec and a geopolitical win for the US, stressing market disruption and institutional decline. They foreground alarmist analyst quotes like "the beginning of the end," highlight Trump’s reaction, and give limited Opec or member-state rebuttals, shaping a narrative of imminent realignment.